Lions stats point to at least two obvious back row Test selections
Context is everything when understanding statistics in rugby, given the endless variables and the often small sample size of players in any given comparison. It’s very easy to over-egg more or less redundant statistics and underestimate the role of luck and less obvious variables like injuries, which are effectively unavailable to the average punter with an interest in the sport.
On this tour the back row unit has been Gatland’s biggest selection headache, the New Zealander admitting as much following victory over the Stormers. “I don’t go in with preconceived ideas. I try to let that develop and allow the players to have that opportunity to put their hands up,” said Gatland. “Sometimes it’s about looking at the players and their numbers and the stats and sometimes it’s about having a gut feeling about certain players and combinations.
“And that process will really take place, even though I’ve already started to think about it, over the next couple of days. There are going to be some tight calls with regard to the make-up of the back three. Also the loose forwards and how that mix is going to look.
“They’re probably the tightest calls that we’ve got to make in terms of getting the balance right in those positions.”
Former Lions nine Matt Dawson selected Sam Simmonds as a wildcard selection at No.8. It’s an intriguing choice, especially given that all but one of his five tour appearances have come from the bench.
“To have a back row like Sam Simmonds who is such a threat, who can step and score and pass and link as well as compete out wide gives you a completely different dimension. Gatland has given him loads of run-outs,” wrote Dawson in his BBC column. “I feel that he has wanted to give him a full examination to see if he could be his diamond in the rough.”
Simmonds is an interesting talking point, even if he is long odds for a starting Test role, but his series statistics paint a flattering image of the Exeter Chiefs star.
MINUTES PLAYED AND METRES
The Gallagher Premiership record-breaking try-scorer has been used somewhat sparingly by Gatland. As it stands coming into Test week, Simmonds has played 165 minutes, with only Tom Curry (164 minutes) and Josh Navidi (140 minutes) having clocked up less time on the pitch.
Despite this, Simmonds ball-carrying stats compare favourably against all of his back row counterparts. His 124 metres made is the second most of any loose forward, with only Jack Conan making more metres – 137 metres inside 212 minutes.
Third place goes to Tadhg Beirne making 117 metres from 251 minutes and nearly twice as many carries (20 against 11 for Simmonds), although Beirne can boast a higher gainline success rate of 62.5 per cent, compared to Simmonds’ 47.8 per cent.
The context to this of course is how Gatland is deploying Simmonds ie; later in games against tired defenders. Fellow No.8 Conan and blindside Beirne have both started three of the four matches they’ve been involved in.
Both Conan and Beirne’s volume of carrying, or carry per minute played, also differ in frequency to the more explosive Simmonds.
Josh Navidi has by some distance the lowest amount of metres made with 9 metres from 2 carries in 140 minutes. Curry has a relatively modest 78, but those metres have come from just four carries, making the Sale Shark’s metres per carry (19.5m) the highest of any loose forward, albeit from a relatively low sample size of carries.
Lawes has made 63 metres from 18 carries, for a return of 3.5 metres per carry but the comparison is a disingenuous one, as the towering 6’7 utility forward can more often than not found carrying in heavy traffic around the ruck. Likewise, whirling dervish Hamish Watson’s 46 metres have come on a tour in which the Scot has been asked to tackle bust in heavy traffic as a first receiver.
DEFENDERS BEATEN PER CARRY
Where Watson has excelled is players beaten per carry, beating on average one defender every time he’s made a carry – the highest of any Lions’ forward. Put simply, he’s not made huge metres but every time he’s carried it’s been go forward ball for the Lions, in so far as at least one defender has been left in his wake.
Simmonds is in hot pursuit on this stat too mind, beating nine defenders from 11 carries. Faletau, who many see as the incumbent at No.8, also does well in this regard, with seven defenders beaten from just nine attempts.
Curry is just behind, with three defenders beaten from four attempts, while Conan beat eight defenders from 16 carries, or one every other time. Beirne beat seven from twenties carries.
TACKLING
Even more so in the age of the hybrid player, it goes without saying that the modern back row is expected to tackle and carry competently at Test level. All seven Lions back rows have a tackle success rate of over 90 per cent, with many yet to miss a tackle on tour.
The volume of tackling has been strikingly similar too, although Watson (39), Faletau (37) and Conan (32) have excelled themselves. If you’re thinking those aren’t massive numbers considering the number of games played, it’s important to remember they come in the context of the Lions dominating their South African opposition in all but one match.
TURNOVERS WON
Simmonds has just one turnover to date on tour and he’s in good company, being joined by Watson, Lawes, Faletau and Navidi here. This is where Conan and Beirne have come into their own, with three and four turnovers respectively. Curry has two, but again, off less minutes than his peers.
PASSING GAME
While the number of passes doesn’t give you a guide as to their quality, it’s a decent indicator of how involved and comfortable a back row is linking up with his back division.
It is also the area where the Lions back rows have the most yawning gaps. By some distance Beirne is the most frequent passer of the ball with 26. Curry is in second with 19, Lawes third with 18 and Watson in fourth on 15. Simmonds has ten, two more than Faletau on eight.
TRIES AND ASSISTS
Beirne also leads the try-scoring with three. Conan has two, while Watson, Curry, Simmonds all have one try apiece, with Simmonds and Watson both having one try assists. Faletau hasn’t scored but has two assists to his name.
CONCLUSION
The statistics point in a reasonably clear direction regarding back row selection. Both Beirne and Conan are clear shoe-ins for at No.6 and No.8, statistically, with the data showing they’ve excelled in pretty much every major facet of the game.
As for Simmonds, his outstanding carrying set him apart but the all-court game of Conan make him statistically the obvious choice at No.8
Openside is statistically the tightest call. There is precious little to separate Curry and Watson from a statistical point of view, with the proviso that Watson’s 228 minutes weight some of the numbers (gross tackles for example) in his favour against Curry’s 164. The fact that Curry has made more turnovers and metres, passed more in less time might suggest he’s been more efficient but the Scot’s remarkable ability to break the first tackle and his defensive work rate might tip the balance back.
Of course the statistics are just part of the story, and likely the least part of it for Gatland and his fellow selectors this week. Injury issues, player experience or ‘credit in the bank’, a coach’s gut instinct or the role a player performs within a game plan or system are all several rungs of the ladder up.
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks Nick. I’m looking at the other 7 options in Australia and they don’t seem to be close behind Fraser at the moment? Even before reading this I thought he was well ahead. A random one - Slipper and Allalatoa seem to be getting well beaten in the scrum. I can’t remember this happening often before. Is it a technique/teamwork issue or are their bodies finally past it?
10 Go to commentsNZ is now entrenched in Div 2 of womens rugby. Canada would be thrashed by the likes of France or England. Europe are Div 1, with massive competitions, massive money…
2 Go to commentsBlackadder dies not deserve selection. He has not played enough games. Finau is just better. Kaino's replacement at Blindside On form TJ should be the starting 9 .
127 Go to commentsThe difference is Cotter..
5 Go to commentsThey can’t handle the level of comp in the NH. Pollard was a complete waste at Montpellier - and was the backup 12 when he left. Kitschoff was stealing his paycheque every week at Ulster,- getting absolutely rinsed by backup THs in the URC. There is a reason all the Boks go to Japan - they don’t have it in them to be able to compete. And yes, they won the RWC. Where Barnes and O'Keeffe were the direct reason for that tragedy occurring.
36 Go to commentsTrouble with Jones is he has so many impractical innovations. Kemeney wasn't good enough in any position for top level test rugby. I like how Vern has Papalii playing. He's always had the workrate when in form, although I'm not sure that he quite has Cane's mongrel.
10 Go to commentsPut those results on the old CV and send it in to the crusaders bro.
1 Go to commentsJust go with a top 6 system where the top 2 teams go straight to the semi-finals and the other 4 teams fight it out for the other 2 semi-final spots.
8 Go to commentsIt’s a shame that Baxter wasn’t nominated for DoR of the season. what he did is more impressive than McCall imo
1 Go to commentsSeveral boks said during World Cup they play so hard to give people back home hope. As an Englishman the Springboks Captain’s life story is an inspiration which should give us all hope and inspiration. Rather like that other great South African, Nelson Mandela
36 Go to commentsFox News, Tucker Carlson, Jordan Peterson and Joe Rogan? Yikes.
1 Go to commentsThat is harsh though. Messi has/had a reputation for trying to keep his feet and keep dribbling for goal. Many of his brethren were the histrionic divers but not him.
2 Go to commentsMcReight is certainly one of the first picked. He’s going to be the glue, a Wallaby with some rugby IQ and the everywhere man for the Wallabies.
10 Go to commentsSophie De Goede is one of the best players we’ve ever produced. Kicked all the points, 2 try assists, line out takes, carries, tackles, charge downs… what a player
1 Go to commentsThe guy had just beasted himself in a scrum and the blood hadn't yet returned to his head when he was pushed into a team mate. He took his weight off his left foot precisely at the moment he was shoved and dropped to the floor when seemingly trying to avoid stepping on Hyron Andrews’ foot. I don't think he was trying to milk a penalty, I think he was knackered but still switched on enough to avoid planting 120kgs on the dorsum of his second row’s foot. To effectively “police” such incidents with a (noble) view to eradicating play acting in rugby, yet more video would need to be reviewed in real time, which is not in the interest of the game as a sporting spectacle. I would far rather see Farrell penalised for interfering with the refereeing of the game. Perhaps he was right to be frustrated, he was much closer to the action than the only camera angle I've seen, however his vocal objection to Rodd’s falling over doesn't legitimately fall into the captain's role as the mouthpiece of his team - he should have kept his frustration to himself, that's one of the pillars of rugby union. I appreciate that he was within his rights to communicate with the referee as captain but he didn't do this, he moaned and attempted to sway the decision by directing his complaint to the player rather than the ref. Rugby needs to look closely at the message it wants to send to young players and amateur grassroots rugby. The best way to do this would be to apply the laws as they are written and edit them where the written laws no longer apply. If this means deleting laws such as ‘the put in to the scrum must be straight”, so be it. Likewise, if it is no longer necessary to respect the referee’s decision without questioning it or pre-emptively attempting to sway it (including by diving or by shouting and gesticulating) then this behaviour should be embraced (and commercialised). Otherwise any reference to respecting the referee should be deleted from the laws. You have to start somewhere to maintain the values of rugby and the best place to start would be giving a penalty and a warning against the offending player, followed by a yellow card the next time. People like Farrell would rapidly learn to keep quiet and let their skills do the talking.
1 Go to commentsThe name “Kwagga” came to mind while I was reading this. And there’s another Sevens convert roaming the wide open kant at the Lions now - JC Pretorius. Keep an eye on him.
10 Go to comments2024 Rugby Championship: Sat, 10 Aug 2024 – Sat, 28 Sept 2024. Looking forward to watching the All Blacks coached by Scott Robertson, with or without the ‘dynamic’ qualities of Shannon Michael Frizell - see his display against South Africa at Go Media Mount Smart Stadium on July 15.
1 Go to commentsI agree about 8 being too many The English premiership has top four only Top 14 has six URC has 8 I think 6 would be fine It gives those other two teams an incentive But rewarding a team in perhaps 8th with three wins is atrocious If they get in they know they only need one big game
8 Go to commentsInteresting article. I think the answer lies in a comment Kwagga Smith made during the World Cup. Asked whether it bothers him that the Bok team doesn’t get more credit he said: “We don’t play for people to respect us: we play for each other and we play for South Africa.” The Springbok team is a brotherhood - an incredibly tight unit, most of whom are good friends off the pitch as well. Not only do they not want to let South Africa down, but they fight like crazy not to let their teammates down. Not saying they don’t care about their club teammates, but I think the bond shared in the Boks is just much, much deeper. Tough to forge the same sort of bond at a club over a handful of years. That must translate into superior performances for country over club.
36 Go to commentsThere is very little creativity in the 9-10 axis for SA. 10 needs to be solid, put the work in and kick the points. the SA counter is almost always via the edge or a kick through for a winger. When was the last offensive backline score from SA against a top team? Perhaps the ultra physical nature of the SA teams means players they get to hit more stats in those games. Maybe the SA pleyers are perfectly suited to the SA system. In other Words they are not club players gathered to play SA Internationals. They are SA International players adapting to play club.
36 Go to comments